NC Political Environment

North Carolina’s political environment remains closely divided based on recent survey research. The most competitive legislative districts showcase this divide as they are both the home of swing voters and feature nearly all of the persuasion messaging from all concerned with the priorities and agenda of the General Assembly. Here’s where some of these districts stand.

Top issues
Outside of New Hanover County (which is defined by environmental concerns), the defining issues are usually led by economic issues (taxes and job creation) and health care issues (access to quality care and affordability). Education issues (teacher pay, academic standards and funding) typically trails in third place. Republican over-performance tends to be driven by areas where economic concerns are foremost. In all but one district, undecided voters had an unfavorable view of President Trump.

Likely Republican
Districts 7 (Barnes/Richardson), 9 (Murphy/Rixon), 12 (Humphrey/Graham), 46 (Jones/Yates-Lockamy), 59 (Hardister/Buccini), 62 (Faircloth/Shafer).

These districts include double-digit leads for the Republican candidates and a more favorable political environment than the rest of the state is.

Lean Republican
Districts 2 (Yarborough/Moss), 22 (Brisson/Denning), 35 (Malone/Everitt), 36 (Dollar/vonHaefen), 37 (Adcock/Batch), 103 (Brawley/Hunt).

These districts include leads for the Republican candidates outside the poll’s margin of error but remain competitive given the large number of undecided voters.

Swing
Districts 19 (Davis/Morgan), 20 (Grange/Cohen), 40 (Avila/John), 51 (Sauls/Mathis), 63 (Ross/McAdoo), 93 (Jordan/Russell), 98 (Bradford/Clark).

These districts could be won by either candidate, polling within the margin of error.

Lean Democrat
Districts 105 (Stone/Harris), 119 (Clampitt/Queen)

These districts present challenges for Republicans to maintain, with current incumbents trailing challengers but not overwhelmingly. In particular, the national political environment is currently harming the Republican brand while Governor Cooper retains very favorable image ratings.

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